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Cotton yarn difficulty Zheng cotton upward pressure heavy
Release date:2017-8-10
Source:Futures Daily
Global supply of loose, inventory consumption ratio as high as 93.3%, continue to be high August direct compensation policy details still not issued, but there are rumors that the total amount of direct compensation limited, which led to a strong rebound of Zheng Cotton. The main 1501 contract at the beginning of 14020 yuan/ton, 7 trading days after a sharp rise to 14930 yuan/ton, up nearly thousand yuan. The author thinks, the future Zheng Cotton rising pressure is heavy.

Global inventory pressure remains heavy
According to the USDA's latest August global supply and Demand Forecast report, 2014/2015 Global cotton Total production 25.613 million tons, consumption of 24.515 million tons, the final inventory of 22.88 million tons, inventory consumption than up to 93.3%. The global supply side is loose, ending inventories remain high and pressure is still heavy.

The report continues to increase inventories at the end of China and the United States. China's final inventory for the 2014/2015 year was 13.578 million tonnes, up 22,000 tonnes. Domestic inventory is also a cliché topic, is expected to undergo two digestion, domestic cotton fundamentals will be improved.

The United States has a 1.219 million-ton ending inventory, up 115.4% from the previous year, and the reason is a significant increase in production. 2014/2015 cotton production in the United States 3.811 million tons, increased by 219,000 tons, compared to 2013/2014 years a significant increase of 35.6%. Because of the high level of cotton prices in the 2013/2014, this prompted U.S. farmers to expand cotton acreage, production also increased significantly, and demand did not grow significantly, increased production is reflected in the year-end inventory.

Downstream textile enterprises mood is still pessimistic
June-August for the textile industry's traditional off-season, downstream cloth factory start-up rate is low, funds tight, strict control of raw material inventory, cotton yarn maintenance just need to purchase. and imports of cotton yarn compared to domestic-made yarns have obvious price advantage (the current price difference of 2000 yuan/ton), especially in the low yarn market, domestic cotton yarn more difficult. Through the research found that most of the textile business sentiment is more pessimistic, expect from mid-August to October, shutdown or transfer capacity of textile enterprises will still increase, which will be the new and old cotton prices in the year to bring adverse effects.

In addition, the rise of labor costs is a major problem faced by textile enterprises. Textile industry is a labor-intensive industry, in recent years, the domestic minimum wage standard has been raised, labor costs continue to rise. According to a textile enterprises in charge of the introduction, in the past two years the enterprise labor costs increased by 35%. Due to the loss of labor cost advantage, domestic cotton yarn and Southeast Asia and other countries cotton yarn competitive advantage gradually lost.

The direct supplement rules still "Dystocia"
In recent years, the domestic cotton market has been policy city, this year is no exception. Unlike in the past, this year, the policy of direct compensation has been in the "Dystocia" state, the beginning of the year has announced the abolition of the Policy of stockpiling and replacing the policy of direct compensation, and should be before the sowing of cotton before the direct compensation rules are dragged. The relevant departments in the early release of the news, announced the end of July to publish direct compensation policy rules, the market is eagerly awaited, but the result is still water.
Recently, the total amount of rumors are limited, the market worried about cotton price over fall after the government will backing, which has been in the low wandering Zheng cotton market like a shot in the arm, the price of a strong rebound immediately. As we all know, the impact of national policies on Mian is very large, but the current policy rules have been delayed, market speculation, and whether there is a guaranteed policy, or a mystery. For the "Dystocia" of the direct supplementary rules, we only have to continue to wait patiently.

The current cotton market fundamentals have no suspense, but the policy is confusing, this is also the recent bulls can hype themes. In the global cotton supply surplus, domestic inventory high background, Zheng Cotton up space is limited. For Zheng Mian main 1501 contract, every high air is a relatively safe way. At present, more than the gap between the larger, operation can be homeopathy, early high empty single can continue to hold; if the key support under the expansion of the warehouse, is still a good opportunity to layout empty list.


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